ECB Survey

The European Central Bank released its Consumer Expectations Survey results for July 2026, which showed a decrease in median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months to 3.5%. According to the survey, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased to 2.9%. The ECB attributes this decrease to changing consumer expectations.

Inflation

The survey results indicated that uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months was unchanged and remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the war in the Middle East. Respondents in lower-income quintiles reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in higher-income quintiles. The ECB notes that younger respondents reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents.

Income and consumption

Consumers' expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months decreased to 1.0%, from 1.1% in June. The perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months was unchanged from June, at 5.1%. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months was also unchanged, at 3.6%. The ECB reports that respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expected slightly higher spending growth than those in the highest two quintiles.

Economic growth and labour market

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months rose to -1.2%, from -1.4% in June. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead was unchanged at 11.2%. Lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead, while higher-income households expected the lowest rate. The ECB notes that consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate.

Housing and credit access

In July, consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, unchanged from June. Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months' time declined to 4.9%, from 5.0% in June. The ECB reports that lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead, while higher-income households expected the lowest rates. The following table summarizes the expectations for home price growth and mortgage interest rates:

The ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey results are used for policy analysis and complement other data sources used by the ECB. The survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adult consumers from 11 euro area countries. The results do not represent the views of the ECB's decision-making bodies or staff. The release of the Consumer Expectations Survey results for August is scheduled for 18 September 2026.